Incentives for surveillance and reporting of infectious disease outbreaks

Containment of potential pandemic threats such as SARS and avian ‡u depends on prompt reporting of outbreaks. This paper examines the incentives of source countries to identify and disclose outbreaks. The analysis yields a number of policy-relevent …ndings. Whereas sanctions by trading partners following the formal report of an outbreak discourages reporting, sanctions based on fears of an undetected or unreported outbreak encourage disclosure by reducing the relative cost of reporting. Improving the quality of diagnostic technologies or the veracity of rumors of outbreaks may discourage disclosure by encouraging trading partners to raise sanctions following the report of an outbreak.